COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3 PICKS
Week 2 was a slight step backward for me, going 15-5 after going 19-3 the week before. For those of you keeping score at home, that brings my overall record to 34-8, an 81% accuracy. The weeks to come won't be as easy though. The match ups are no longer lop-sided as we move towards conference play and teams finally pick on people their own size. That's no reason for me to try to match my success rate though. Diving into week 3 headfirst.
#24 TCU @ Texas Tech: TCU rebounded from their week 1 loss to LSU and put their first deposit in the win column last week. They'd like for that tradition to continue. The Red Raiders arrive well rested off a bye and not needing to travel. This one has every reason to be on upset alert as both teams open up conference play on a Thursday night. But my gut is telling me TCU will narrowly pull it out.
TCU 17 TT 14
#5. Stanford @ Army: I will always back up the Army on the battlefield, but on the football field it's a bit harder. Stanford did what I said they would last week, slow start followed by a strong finish. Even though it's still early, there's no reason to believe the Cardinal won't easily dispose of Army on Saturday. Stan 35 Army 7
#7 Louisville @ Kentucky: The annual in-state rivalry returns and once again it's not that exciting. You can't even call this a state championship game because Kentucky fell to Western Kentucky back on August 31st. There's no need to make a big deal about Louisville playing an SEC team or a rival, they should breeze through this one pretty casually. L'Ville 42 Kentucky 10
Akron @ #11 Michigan: While most teams should stop playing cupcakes around week 3, Michigan deserves an easy week. Riding high off their victory over Notre Dame in the Big House Michigan should walk in with a lot of confidence, rightfully so. Using the comparison theorem: Michigan > Notre Dame > Akron = Big Michigan victory. Michigan 35 Akron 13
Tulsa @ #14. Oklahoma: Boomer Sooner struggled with West Virginia last week, who we still really aren't sure exactly how to judge. Regardless, the Sooners advanced to 2-0 and 1-0 in the conference. Now they get the Green Wave at home. While it could be interesting for a quarter or two, Oklahoma's athletes should still be superior to Tulsa's and I don't expect any surprises on OU's turf. OU 29 Tulsa 14
#16. UCLA @ #23 Nebraska: Well this is certainly an interesting non conference match up. The Bruins have the benefit of an extra week of rest, the Cornhuskers have the benefit of home field advantage. I think Nebraska has the better Quarterback and the best player on the field in Taylor Martinez, but I think UCLA has a better coach in Jim Mora Jr. This is a real toss up for me...I'm thinking Martinez makes big plays down the stretch and Nebraska defends the home field. Nebraska 27 UCLA 23
#1. Alabama @ #6. Texas A&M: When the schedule first came out, this was definately the most anticipated match up of 2013. Johnny Manziell made his name in the world by taking down the Goliath Alabama last season in Tuscaloosca and nearly foiling their national title hopes. But Alabama doesn't take their rare losses lightly, remember how many times LSU crossed the 50 yard line in that 2012 national title game? Another factor I'd like to point out, Texas A&M's defense is struggling: they've allowed 31 and 28 points to Rice and Sam Houston State respectively. Alabama will have them beat on the defensive side of the ball and avenge last year's loss. Bama 38 TAMU 27
Tennessee @ #2. Oregon: The Volunteers are used to good beginnings, but not really familiar with happy endings once the easy games are out of the way. On the other hand, the Ducks really look like contenders, and booking an ACC and an SEC team in their non conference schedule will look good upon the eyes of the voters. The Oregon offense has been picking up right where Chip Kelly left it and I don't think the Tennessee defense can keep up with it or slow it down. Oregon 52 Tennessee 20
Nevada @ #10. Florida State: Well it's no secret anymore, Jameis Winston has some serious potential. The freshman has no chance of flying under the radar after his 27/29 5 TD Monday night debut in Pittsburgh back on Labor day. Now his task becomes a bit easier, beat a smaller school in front of the home crowd. Nevada shouldn't be taken lightly, they were only trailing UCLA by 4 at the half of week 1 before falling apart. But at the end of the day there's really no reason FSU shouldn't enjoy a big opening at Doak. FSU 45 Nevada 13
#19. Washington @ Illinois: After crushing Boise impressively on week 1, Washington finds themselves in unfamiliar territory....the top 20 of the AP poll. They hit the job hard again by booking a Big 10 school in a non conference game. Illinois also enters the game 2-0 with some steam after their rout of Cincinatti. It's too early to tell whether Washington is pretender or contender but Saturday should give us at least a better idea. I could be sniffing upset, but I'm still feeling Washington by a tad in this one. Wash 22 Illinois 20
#4 Ohio State @ California: Cal was no match for other Big 10 opponent Northwestern, who I still don't believe to be as good as Ohio State. Braxton Miller is listed as "questionable", but I'm confident he'll play. He could have played if they really needed him last week. Even if he doesn't Kenny Guiton has gotten some valuable reps the past 2 weeks and shown his athleticism and ability as a dual threat QB. Ohio State may start a bit shakey since they really haven't had any real competition yet, but they're still the favorite here. Bucks 28 Cal 14
Kent State @ #8. LSU: Zach Mettenberger FINALLY put together a complete brilliant game, which is big for his confidence regardless of who he's facing. He threw more touchdowns than incompletions and it's still a great possibility that he could be in for a big Senior year. Kent State gets props because they have a habit of booking big games, they just don't have a habit of winning them. Tigers advance to 3-0. LSU 31 Kent State 13
Vanderbilt @ #13. South Carolina: Both teams already got to play an early conference game, and they both started off on the wrong foot. But that's no reason to not watch out for either of them. South Carolina lost to a great football team on the road and all the tools are still there for a late season BCS run. Vandy has made great strides in recent years, they're competing with their big SEC opponents and last year they made it to a bowl game. At this point in time though, South Carolina is still a better team with a better coach and a better program. I like them to rebound at home. SC 27 Vandy 14
Lamar @ #12. Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State got the offensive jumpstart that they were so desperately searching for last week, and they're really starting to gain some confidence. The Cowboys should keep the mojo going against Lamar at home and perhaps the national title whispers will begin to emerge. OKST 45 Lamar 3
#21 Notre Dame @ Purdue: A good rivalry that's lost it's flavor over the last 6-7 years. While it doesn't look that exciting at face value, Purdue has quietly made a habit of really challenging ND as of recently. Notre Dame needs to forget about what happened last week and try to still turn this season into a productive one that they can look at and be proud of. The National Championship isn't out of question if they win out. But that only happens if they take it one step at a time. I think they'll suffer from some adversity but beat Purdue in the last quarter to steal the game. Notre Dame 21 Purdue 17
#25 Ole Miss @ Texas: I really expected big things from Texas this year with the experience they bring to the table, but after that embarrassing performance against BYU I'm forced to rethink things. I may have also misjudged Ole Miss. I thought they were a team to watch in a few years, but they may be a "now" team. Anyways, my inaccuracies make the crystal ball quite foggy on this one, but I think I'll try to ride the SEC team to victory. Ole Miss 26 Texas 20
Western Michigan @ #17 Northwestern: Northwestern quietly took care of 2 decent teams without anyone really noticing or acknowledging it. They feel disrespected that their entire conference pays more attention to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Nebraska. Northwestern's opportunity will come as long as they remain patient and make their layups along the way to the bigger games. But they played good enough competition to be more than prepared for Western Michigan. NW 38 West. Mich. 15
#20. Wisconsin @ Arizona State: I understand Wisconsin's competition has been poor the first 2 weeks, but posting two shutouts shouldn't be overlooked either. Arizona State has only played one game....which was also a shutout. So perhaps a defensive battle is in store for the latest of ranked games this week. Despite the loss of their coach and big players, Wisconsin's been a great team for some time now, and Arizona State is still trying to establish themselves as an NCAA force. I still believe in Wisconsin and the program they've put together. Wisc 26 Arizona State 17
#24 TCU @ Texas Tech: TCU rebounded from their week 1 loss to LSU and put their first deposit in the win column last week. They'd like for that tradition to continue. The Red Raiders arrive well rested off a bye and not needing to travel. This one has every reason to be on upset alert as both teams open up conference play on a Thursday night. But my gut is telling me TCU will narrowly pull it out.
TCU 17 TT 14
#5. Stanford @ Army: I will always back up the Army on the battlefield, but on the football field it's a bit harder. Stanford did what I said they would last week, slow start followed by a strong finish. Even though it's still early, there's no reason to believe the Cardinal won't easily dispose of Army on Saturday. Stan 35 Army 7
#7 Louisville @ Kentucky: The annual in-state rivalry returns and once again it's not that exciting. You can't even call this a state championship game because Kentucky fell to Western Kentucky back on August 31st. There's no need to make a big deal about Louisville playing an SEC team or a rival, they should breeze through this one pretty casually. L'Ville 42 Kentucky 10
Akron @ #11 Michigan: While most teams should stop playing cupcakes around week 3, Michigan deserves an easy week. Riding high off their victory over Notre Dame in the Big House Michigan should walk in with a lot of confidence, rightfully so. Using the comparison theorem: Michigan > Notre Dame > Akron = Big Michigan victory. Michigan 35 Akron 13
Tulsa @ #14. Oklahoma: Boomer Sooner struggled with West Virginia last week, who we still really aren't sure exactly how to judge. Regardless, the Sooners advanced to 2-0 and 1-0 in the conference. Now they get the Green Wave at home. While it could be interesting for a quarter or two, Oklahoma's athletes should still be superior to Tulsa's and I don't expect any surprises on OU's turf. OU 29 Tulsa 14
#16. UCLA @ #23 Nebraska: Well this is certainly an interesting non conference match up. The Bruins have the benefit of an extra week of rest, the Cornhuskers have the benefit of home field advantage. I think Nebraska has the better Quarterback and the best player on the field in Taylor Martinez, but I think UCLA has a better coach in Jim Mora Jr. This is a real toss up for me...I'm thinking Martinez makes big plays down the stretch and Nebraska defends the home field. Nebraska 27 UCLA 23
#1. Alabama @ #6. Texas A&M: When the schedule first came out, this was definately the most anticipated match up of 2013. Johnny Manziell made his name in the world by taking down the Goliath Alabama last season in Tuscaloosca and nearly foiling their national title hopes. But Alabama doesn't take their rare losses lightly, remember how many times LSU crossed the 50 yard line in that 2012 national title game? Another factor I'd like to point out, Texas A&M's defense is struggling: they've allowed 31 and 28 points to Rice and Sam Houston State respectively. Alabama will have them beat on the defensive side of the ball and avenge last year's loss. Bama 38 TAMU 27
Tennessee @ #2. Oregon: The Volunteers are used to good beginnings, but not really familiar with happy endings once the easy games are out of the way. On the other hand, the Ducks really look like contenders, and booking an ACC and an SEC team in their non conference schedule will look good upon the eyes of the voters. The Oregon offense has been picking up right where Chip Kelly left it and I don't think the Tennessee defense can keep up with it or slow it down. Oregon 52 Tennessee 20
Nevada @ #10. Florida State: Well it's no secret anymore, Jameis Winston has some serious potential. The freshman has no chance of flying under the radar after his 27/29 5 TD Monday night debut in Pittsburgh back on Labor day. Now his task becomes a bit easier, beat a smaller school in front of the home crowd. Nevada shouldn't be taken lightly, they were only trailing UCLA by 4 at the half of week 1 before falling apart. But at the end of the day there's really no reason FSU shouldn't enjoy a big opening at Doak. FSU 45 Nevada 13
#19. Washington @ Illinois: After crushing Boise impressively on week 1, Washington finds themselves in unfamiliar territory....the top 20 of the AP poll. They hit the job hard again by booking a Big 10 school in a non conference game. Illinois also enters the game 2-0 with some steam after their rout of Cincinatti. It's too early to tell whether Washington is pretender or contender but Saturday should give us at least a better idea. I could be sniffing upset, but I'm still feeling Washington by a tad in this one. Wash 22 Illinois 20
#4 Ohio State @ California: Cal was no match for other Big 10 opponent Northwestern, who I still don't believe to be as good as Ohio State. Braxton Miller is listed as "questionable", but I'm confident he'll play. He could have played if they really needed him last week. Even if he doesn't Kenny Guiton has gotten some valuable reps the past 2 weeks and shown his athleticism and ability as a dual threat QB. Ohio State may start a bit shakey since they really haven't had any real competition yet, but they're still the favorite here. Bucks 28 Cal 14
Kent State @ #8. LSU: Zach Mettenberger FINALLY put together a complete brilliant game, which is big for his confidence regardless of who he's facing. He threw more touchdowns than incompletions and it's still a great possibility that he could be in for a big Senior year. Kent State gets props because they have a habit of booking big games, they just don't have a habit of winning them. Tigers advance to 3-0. LSU 31 Kent State 13
Vanderbilt @ #13. South Carolina: Both teams already got to play an early conference game, and they both started off on the wrong foot. But that's no reason to not watch out for either of them. South Carolina lost to a great football team on the road and all the tools are still there for a late season BCS run. Vandy has made great strides in recent years, they're competing with their big SEC opponents and last year they made it to a bowl game. At this point in time though, South Carolina is still a better team with a better coach and a better program. I like them to rebound at home. SC 27 Vandy 14
Lamar @ #12. Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State got the offensive jumpstart that they were so desperately searching for last week, and they're really starting to gain some confidence. The Cowboys should keep the mojo going against Lamar at home and perhaps the national title whispers will begin to emerge. OKST 45 Lamar 3
#21 Notre Dame @ Purdue: A good rivalry that's lost it's flavor over the last 6-7 years. While it doesn't look that exciting at face value, Purdue has quietly made a habit of really challenging ND as of recently. Notre Dame needs to forget about what happened last week and try to still turn this season into a productive one that they can look at and be proud of. The National Championship isn't out of question if they win out. But that only happens if they take it one step at a time. I think they'll suffer from some adversity but beat Purdue in the last quarter to steal the game. Notre Dame 21 Purdue 17
#25 Ole Miss @ Texas: I really expected big things from Texas this year with the experience they bring to the table, but after that embarrassing performance against BYU I'm forced to rethink things. I may have also misjudged Ole Miss. I thought they were a team to watch in a few years, but they may be a "now" team. Anyways, my inaccuracies make the crystal ball quite foggy on this one, but I think I'll try to ride the SEC team to victory. Ole Miss 26 Texas 20
Western Michigan @ #17 Northwestern: Northwestern quietly took care of 2 decent teams without anyone really noticing or acknowledging it. They feel disrespected that their entire conference pays more attention to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Nebraska. Northwestern's opportunity will come as long as they remain patient and make their layups along the way to the bigger games. But they played good enough competition to be more than prepared for Western Michigan. NW 38 West. Mich. 15
#20. Wisconsin @ Arizona State: I understand Wisconsin's competition has been poor the first 2 weeks, but posting two shutouts shouldn't be overlooked either. Arizona State has only played one game....which was also a shutout. So perhaps a defensive battle is in store for the latest of ranked games this week. Despite the loss of their coach and big players, Wisconsin's been a great team for some time now, and Arizona State is still trying to establish themselves as an NCAA force. I still believe in Wisconsin and the program they've put together. Wisc 26 Arizona State 17
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