COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 25 AND PREDICTIONS
On Thursday, USA Today released their preseason top 25 less than 30 days before the beginning of the season. One could argue the releasing of pre-season polls is the 2nd biggest non-sporting NCAA event each year only behind Selection Sunday. There weren't many surprises in this year's USA Today preseason poll, however I made some minor tweaks and shifts to my own top 25 and created a preview of the upcoming 2013-14 college football season, which begins on August 29th!
#25. USC Trojans
USC continues to fade, but not completely out of the picture. Max Wittek wasn't all that impressive in his 2 late starts last season, but to be fair one of those was against the National runners up and the other was a bowl game against the ACC runners up. It's still unclear whether or not he will remain the starter, and with six halfbacks in the rotation the offense is a huge question mark. Regardless, USC historically has a way of figuring these things out and I predict they'll find a way to win 9 games this year.
#24. Miami Hurricanes
It's as if the rest of the country has almost forgotten about Miami after some recruiting violations and post-season ineligibility. The 'Canes have quietly put together a deep, talented, athletic roster. Match that with their weak ACC schedule which doesn't include Clemson and Miami has an opportunity to make some national noise once again. Their performance against in-state rivals Florida and Florida State will be the determining factor of their success.
#23. Penn State Nittany Lions
I realize that people are going to moan and groan that I put an ineligible postseason team on the list. But they shouldn't. After a summer filled with adversity and two early embarrassing losses, Penn State rallied to win 8 of its last 10, including a win over conference champ Wisconsin. PSU made do with what it had left and spun it into something successful, it's players should return with a lot of confidence but still a sense of something to prove.
#22. TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has had their year to adjust to life in the Big XII. Casey Pachall returns after treatment for alcohol addiction and his efficiency after time away from the game will be the x-factor for Texas Christian. We will find out quickly how real TCU is this year as they play LSU in their first game.
#21. Wisconsin Badgers
It seems extremely disrespectful to place a team that's reached 3 straight rose bowls so low on the list, but then again maybe it's just realistic. There is no more Bret Bielema, or Montee Ball, or even Russel Wilson for that matter. Wisconsin has benefited in years past from Heisman caliber players and great coaching, but those are some huge shoes to fill in such a short period of time.
#20. UCLA Bruins
UCLA was one of the pleasant surprises of last year, reaching the Pac-12 final when all people talked about was Oregon, Stanford, and overrated USC. Jim Mora has the bruins headed in the right direction once again, but their still a couple steps away from being taken as serious contenders. The Bruins will be judged by their road performance, which includes an early trip to Nebraska, and then back to back trips to Stanford and Oregon.
#19. Oklahoma Sooners
After an unfortunate foot injury to Kendall Thompson, it does look like Blake Bell will get the nod at QB for the Sooners. Though his action was limited, playing behind and learning from Landry Jones should have been beneficial for Bell. Though there's a lot of uncertainty for OU on both sides of the ball, they were a couple big plays away from being conference champs last year. Bob Stoops also landed a contract extension until 2020, and as long as he's still around the Sooners should still be in the mix.
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#18 Oklahoma State Cowboys
With Wes Lunt transferring to Illinois, Clint Chelf seems to be the favorite to be taking the snaps for OSU. We saw last year that this offense is capable of putting up large amounts of points and there's no reason to believe that won't continue. If the Cowboys made the proper adjustments on the defensive side they're in contention for a conference title.
#17. Boise State Broncos
Boise State continues to be the most predictable team in the nation. We know they're going to breeze through the majority of their Mountain West schedule and score over 40 points almost every week, and we guess they'll get lazy and drop a game or two along the way. Even if Boise goes a perfect 12-0, a BCS game isn't even a guarantee. The Broncos need to start scheduling better opponents if they ever want to be taken seriously, and no a road game against Washington does not count.
#16. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Things are looking bright for Nebraska these days, Taylor Martinez is ready for a big senior year campaign after proving his throwing arm last year while simultaneously rushing for over 1000 yards. As a bonus, Nebraska enjoys a schedule that doesn't include Ohio State or Wisconsin (though it's almost certain they'll face one of them in a potential Big Ten title game). As long as the Cornhuskers continue to tame the bottom feeders of the conference a 10 win season looks like a high probability.
#15. Texas Longhorns
Despite a roller coaster of a season last year, Texas managed to pull a 9-4 record out of their ass and still be left wanting more. Now they lead the nation with 19 returning starters, good luck finding a team more experienced. David Ash should be sharper this year after a full year of seasoning and will provide the consistency at the QB position that Texas lacked last year. Rumor has it Mack Brown is on the hot seat, but this guy's been winning big games since 1998 and still has some fight in him.
#14. Michigan Wolverines
Denard Robinson wasn't all what Michigan built him up to be. Devin Gardner still can be though. Gardner relieved Robinson towards the end of the year and ultimately snagged the starting position. He almost lead them to a win over South Carolina in the outback bowl last season if not for a Conner Shaw hail mary. Michigan will have to deal with perennial foes Ohio State and Notre Dame as well as relatively new Nebraska, but all three of those games are in "The Big House" so a Wolverine run isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.
After a long break from national acclaim, Notre Dame made a heroic return to greatness last year with a perfect regular season and national title appearance. Brian Kelly seems to have the Irish headed in the right direction, but Everett Golson's temporary leave from the university does hurt. Luckily the Irish once again have Tommy Rees in their back pocket, who is arguably the most experienced back up in the country. Notre Dame faces its perennial difficult schedule, and it would be hard to imagine a second straight title appearance.
No matter how average LSU looks at the beginning of each season, they always find ways to win football games and stir up the BCS pot. Zach Mettenberger returns at QB for the Tigers, and though things seemed shaky early on last year he seems to be slowly putting things together just in time. Once again, LSU lost a plethora of talented defensive stars to the NFL draft, but once again we believe their ready to reload as they do every year. The Mad Hatter always has a trick or two up his sleeve to win big games, so we're still confident that LSU is a force to be reckoned with.
Florida State has a lot of holes to fill after kissing goodbye a senior class that helped return them to the top of the college football tier. But FSU has helped its case by putting together top 10 recruiting classes every year during the Jimbo Fisher era. There's been a lot of hype surrounding new QB Jameis Winston at training camp, but if he's everything they claim he is then an FSU run isn't out of question. Road games against both UF and Clemson are a real thorn in FSU's title chances, but if they find a way to steal both of those they would be a dark horse title contender.
As an FSU student, it really pains me to do this. But writing from an unbiased standpoint, Florida has a slight edge with the experience. Furthermore they don't have to play Bama or A&M so if they were to make a run, this might be a good year to do it. UF will be solid, but if it wants to contend for a national title there are some off the field issues that need to be addressed. Multiple arrests, alleged recruiting violations, and a starting QB who signs MLB contracts shouldn't be overlooked. As for on the field? We know the defense will be among the best, but unless Jeff Driskel grows up they won't win the conference, let alone a national title.
Steve Spurrier enters his 9th season as the Gamecock's head coach, if that doesn't make you feel old I don't know what will. What's more surprising? Spurrier has nothing to show for those 9 seasons of work. South Carolina always shows glimpses of hope, but when it comes down two it, there's normally two games that seperate the Gamecocks from the top of the pack. South Carolina showed us their depth after continuing to compete after Lattimore's season ending injury, but I don't really see any sign that this team can compete with the top 5 ot so.
Stanford has quietly been one of the best teams of the new decade. I'd bet most of you didn't realize Stanford has been in 3 straight BCS bowl games, winning two of them and dropping the third in OT. David Shaw is 23-4 in 2 years as the head coach, which is simply amazing for any division 1 power conference team. That includes 2 wins against Oregon and a goal line debateable loss to national runner up Notre Dame. The crazy part? People still haven't caught on. When it comes to the Pac-12, people rave about Oregon and even talk about USC as much as they speak of Stanford. The voters finally got smart, putting the Cardinal at preseason #4. I don't think they'll quite finish that high, but I've been wrong about them for the past 3 years now.
Louisville gained some major respect after an explosive Sugar Bowl performance back in January. But at the same time, they played a team who didn't care and don't forget that same team lost to Syracuse and Uconn. Regardless of how overrated/underrated you think Louisville is, there is no excuse for them not to go undefeated when their hardest game is Cincinatti. Even with a perfect record, computer polls aren't going to favor Louisville's weak schedule. And just because the SEC is the best conference in football, doesn't mean playing Kentucky on week 1 should help you any.
This team shocked the world last year by coming out of left field to only be a spiked ball and a 5 yard pattern away from possibly a national title. The offense that produced 400 total yards and nearly 5 touchdowns on the Crimson Tide defense returns 10 starters, which means you can expect a lot of points. The defense however returns only 3, which once again means you can expect a lot of points. In a conference that prides its defense, Georgia will be the oddball winning games by scores of 49-37 on a weekly basis. Nevertheless, if Mark Richt can figure out how to refuel his defense, Georgia is going to be scary good.
Another team that is going to put up insane amounts of points. Last year their offense was 2nd most efficient nationally only behind Oregon, and they return almost every key component of the unit except De'Andre Hopkins. What we also learned last year, is that Clemson didn't bother defend anybody. In more then half their games the opposing team scored at least 20 points. We expect the Clemson offense to be as good as any in the nation this year, but for a national title a better defense and a perfect record are mandatory. And with a schedule that features two top 10 SEC foes and annual rival FSU, an average defense won't go 3-0.
Everyone else has them at #2, but not this guy. Going undefeated is easy when you play in a bad conference and have nothing to lose. This year, the pressure will be on and the strength of the conference has increased as well. The Ohio State schedule is a cupcake until playing Michigan on rivalry week, and saying this team would go at least 11-1 is a good bet. But that 1 would really hurt when December rolls around.
Two words: Johnny. Football. Sure his offseason has been a bit more eventful than fans would have hoped, skipping camps, getting kicked out of parties, old arrest files popping up, but there's no reason to believe this guy still isn't the best player in college football. The winner of a very early week 3 Texas A&M/Bama showdown holds the key to the national title, and you can assume Tuscaloosa will be loud and the Tide will be bloodthirsty. But if they can clear that hurdle, all that remains is an LSU trip and an SEC title game.
Even with Chip Kelly out of the picture, Oregon's way to stacked offensively to assume anything short of the top 5. Mariotta, Thomas, and their new addition Tyner will be too much speed for any defense to keep up with in the Pac-12, and I just don't see Stanford beating them 3 years in a row. Their offense is good enough to take them all the way to the national title game, but to win they'll need a bit more.
It should come as no surprise that the Tide roll in at #1 once again. Alabama is sound on both sides of the ball, and it's indisputable that they have the best coach in the nation. Texas A&M will give them a run in week 3, and Oregon could give them a run in the national title, but Alabama will once again prove that in football good defense beats good offense and through a wild series of events secure another national title if all goes according to plan. Don't quote me on that, cuz anyone in the top 15 is fair game, but this is the safest bet.
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